The Design Platform of the Future

By Terry Wohlers, Wohlers Associates, Inc.

The first time I phoned Autodesk, in 1983, Mike Ford, then vice president of marketing and sales, answered the phone. That’s how small the company was at the time. Most recently, however, Autodesk’s annual revenues were $2.17 billion, making it the largest CAD company in the world. Who would have guessed that it would advance so far?

  Through the 1980s and much of the 1990s, Autodesk was viewed as a second-class citizen among its high-end competitors and many of their customers. Popular wisdom at the time implied that if you wanted to do serious drafting and design work, you needed expensive software from Applicon, Auto-trol, CADAM, Calma, Computervision, Dassault, or Intergraph, running on high-end, proprietary, and expensive hardware. Even in the mid to late 1990s, when PCs and software such as AutoCAD were becoming quite powerful, many people did not yet view them as real solutions.

  I recall meeting with an established company in Japan in 1997. The CEO was seeking advice on the future of product development and prototyping. I was surprised when he would not believe that PCs would power his CAD software. He tried to convince me that his company could not do intricate design work using anything less than software running on Unix workstations. At the time, his company was running hundreds of seats.

  It’s been interesting to watch the migration from mainframe computers to the VAX and MicroVAX, then to Apollo, Sun, and HP workstations before moving to PCs. Companies such as Autodesk and SolidWorks have strengthened and gained respect each step of the way. It goes to show you that one should never underestimate a small company surrounded by industry giants and expensive products. When a sense of superiority and complacency sets in at the big guys, almost anything can happen.

  The next great threat may come from open-source software and low-cost or free products. Blender, for example, is a free, open-source suite for modeling, rendering, and animating,  and I’ve received good reports from users. Many argue, “Why spend thousands when you can get it for free?”

  SketchUp, Rhino, and ZBrush are not open-source developments, but they are relatively inexpensive software products and throngs of users are putting them to work. The free version of SketchUp is good enough to introduce students to 3D design concepts. David Mitchelson, managing director of UK-based Charnwood Dynamics Ltd., used it to rough out the design of a new biomechanics product before handing it off to an MCAD professional. Even I was producing interesting designs five minutes after installing SketchUp.

  The next major leap will be a more complete product development platform that includes open-source software and a 3D printer. Cornell University has created Fab@Home, an open-source personal fabrication system with more than 150 installations worldwide. You can download the plans for Fab@Home and build the syringe-based extrusion system on your own or purchase it as a kit. Variations of the system have produced plastic parts, conductive wiring embedded in structural materials, complete batteries, engineered living tissue, and all manner of parts.

  Autodesk is the current giant and faces the challenge of holding its position over the next decade or two. CEO Carl Bass has a Dimension 3D printer in his workshop, so maybe he’s contemplating the ultimate design platform of the future. It could go a long way in securing the company’s position. If Autodesk doesn’t do it, someone else will.

Industry consultant and analyst Terry Wohlers is president of Wohlers Associates, Inc. For more information, visit wohlersassociates.com. Send comments about this article to [email protected].